Mother Nature has a wicked sense of humor.  After evacuating all of those Louisiana residents to Houston (among a myriad of other cities in Texas), they're now being forced to evacuate ahead of Rita, Katrina's friend, who seems hell-bent to visit the Lone Star State.

Even here in the DFW metroplex we are being warned of Rita's impact this weekend.  We are, as of this writing, in the direct line of fire once the storm makes landfall late Friday or early Saturday.  If the current storm track verifies, North Texas will get substantial rain, wind and possibly even tornadoes as Rita moves over the area Saturday and Sunday.

This would not be the first time a hurricane has affected North Texas.  As you can see from this analysis, our position inland does not protect us from such storms, although it does help by draining storm energy before they get here.  Still, it's not uncommon for this area to be impacted by tropical storms and hurricanes sweeping in from the Gulf.  If Rita holds together, and depending greatly on the speed with which the storm moves once it makes landfall, it would not be out of the question for us to have significant flooding, wind damage, and tornadoes.

As we are now ten years into the cycle of increased hurricane intensity and activity, and these cycles last 10-30 years, the National Hurricane Center has already warned that America may see a lot more of these kinds of storms over the next 10-20 years if the cycle doesn't end soon.  Before the environmentalist propaganda machine declares global warming a reality and this cycle proof of such, even our local ABC affiliate got the scoop directly from the National Hurricane Center: it's a natural cycle that has absolutely nothing to do with people — it's a normal oceanic oscillation that spans one or more decades and occurs every 20-40 years.

We are, of course, days away from landfall regardless of where Rita goes, and Katrina demonstrated that such storms can abruptly change course and throw all predictions out the window.  Still, if you're interested in seeing what they're currently saying (9/21/2005 @ 10:12 CDT) we can expect here in North Texas, use the "Continue reading" link below to see the existing Hazardous Weather Outlook and Special Weather Statement from NOAA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-212200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
510 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…
HOT…HUMID…AND RAINLESS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS
HURRICANE RITA WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RITA MOST
LIKELY WILL TURN NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY…MAKING LAND FALL ALONG
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST…BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM…AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK
WILL BE REFINED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ONE-HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT…WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED AS RITA APPROACHES NORTH TEXAS.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH TEXAS…MAINLY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

MOREOVER…WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RITA'S
REMNANT CIRCULATION…MAINLY FROM WACO SOUTHWARD…SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY.

FINALLY…THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS…NEXT TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211915-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOWIE…NOCONA…GAINESVILLE…
SHERMAN…DENISON…BONHAM…PARIS…GRAHAM…OLNEY…JACKSBORO…
DECATUR…BRIDGEPORT…DENTON…LEWISVILLE…FLOWER MOUND…
THE COLONY…PLANO…GREENVILLE…COMMERCE…COOPER…
SULPHUR SPRINGS…BRECKENRIDGE…MINERAL WELLS…WEATHERFORD…
BRIAR…FORT WORTH…ARLINGTON…DALLAS…ROCKWALL…TERRELL…
KAUFMAN…FORNEY…WILLS POINT…CANTON…GRAND SALINE…VAN…
EDGEWOOD…EMORY…POINT…EAST TAWAKONI…CISCO…EASTLAND…
RANGER…GORMAN…STEPHENVILLE…DUBLIN…GRANBURY…
OAK TRAIL SHORES…GLEN ROSE…CLEBURNE…BURLESON…WAXAHACHIE…
ENNIS…MIDLOTHIAN…GLENN HEIGHTS…ATHENS…GUN BARREL CITY…
COMANCHE…DE LEON…GOLDTHWAITE…HAMILTON…HICO…CLIFTON…
MERIDIAN…VALLEY MILLS…HILLSBORO…CORSICANA…TEAGUE…
FAIRFIELD…PALESTINE…LAMPASAS…COPPERAS COVE…GATESVILLE…
KILLEEN…TEMPLE…FORT HOOD…WACO…MARLIN…MEXIA…
GROESBECK…BUFFALO…CENTERVILLE…JEWETT…OAKWOOD…CAMERON…
ROCKDALE…HEARNE…FRANKLIN…CALVERT
605 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

…EFFECTS FROM MAJOR HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS…

HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LAND-FALL ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE STORM…ALREADY
A MAJOR HURRICANE…IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO A
CATEGORY 5 STORM OVER THE GULF WATERS…WITH SOME DECREASE TO A CATEGORY
4 STORM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY.

THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WOULD BRING
THE DISSIPATING STORM NORTH TO NEAR WACO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY…SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHOULD THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE VERIFY…THE FOLLOWING
EFFECTS WILL BE POSSIBLE…IF NOT LIKELY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

1. 40 TO 60 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS…WITH HIGHER GUSTS…SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LAMPASAS…TO WACO AND CENTERVILLE. THESE ARE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH WINDS…AND EVEN SEVERE STORM WINDS ONCE YOU REACH
58 MPH. THUS…SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGE FROM WIND WOULD LIKELY OCCUR.
SMALL AND LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED. WINDS
SHOULD TAPER OFF TO 20 TO 40 MPH FURTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY…BUT
THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT UPON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. 3 TO 5 INCHES…WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. MUCH OF EAST TEXAS…ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST…HAS BEEN
IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER AND THIS RAIN WOULD BE
VERY BENEFICIAL. HOWEVER…DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM…TOO MUCH RAIN MAY FALL IN TOO SHORT A TIME TO ALLOW SOILS
TO SOAK UP THE RAINFALL. THUS…SOME FLOODING MAY RESULT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS WEEKEND.

3. A FEW TORNADOES.

4. INCREASED TRAFFIC ON INTER-STATES AS PEOPLE EVACUATE FROM THE
HURRICANE. WET ROADS…HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED TRAFFIC COULD
LEAD TO DELAYS AND ACCIDENTS. ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
TRAVEL DESTINATIONS THIS WEEKEND.

5. SOME AIRLINE DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN…ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATIONS THIS WEEKEND.

DISSIPATING HURRICANES HAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MANY TIMES IN
THE PAST…TYPICALLY WITH SOME WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING. RESIDENTS
AND THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR THIS SYSTEM AND STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE RITA…AND OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS
THAT HAVE AFFECTED NORTH TEXAS…IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FWD

80

$$