Yesterday’s weather forecast seemed like a terrible omen.  But as I said yesterday, here in Texas we generally don’t believe any forecaster, and that’s especially true when they portend catastrophic weather conditions.  Our meteorological dynamics lend themselves to unpredictability.  In turn, that lends itself to a degree of skepticism once reserved for UFOs.

Unfortunately, this appears to be one of those times when the dire warnings of the previous day weren’t severe enough.  Mind you, the storm is just getting started and the outcome is not written in stone.  That said, yesterday’s prediction for the weekend appears to have been a wee bit too tame.

This morning I arose to a slightly different forecast, one that tells a more serious story.

We’ve been upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning that runs through Monday morning.  Between now and then, we expect between one-quarter to one inch of ice (0.6 – 2.5 cm).  Some areas likely will receive more than that.  And we’re not slated to get above freezing until Tuesday afternoon.

Because the precipitation is expected to be freezing rain until Sunday night when it could mix with sleet, this really is the worst kind of scenario.  Snow is the best winter precipitation; sleet is the next best; freezing rain is the worst.  Local power companies already have announced their emergency plans are in motion as power outages are expected, especially tomorrow afternoon and evening after the most severe part of the ice tempest finally visits.

So the cold hand of winter has finally reached out to us.  Rather than strolling in casually and finding a quiet place to sit, however, it came roaring into town—and it seems to be really pissed off.

It will be interesting to see how this ultimately shapes up.  We are still above freezing, but only by a few degrees (34° F / 1° C), and the freeze line continues its leisurely approach from the west.  It already sits just one county over, and it should arrive before noon.  That’s when things will get interesting.

In the meantime, we can’t be more thankful for the beneficial rain we’ve received.  With a drought spanning more than two years, the three inches (7.6 cm) of rain we’ve received in the past 24 hours is like a sip from Zeus’ cup… a drink of the gods’ nectar poured on parched lips.  More is needed… much more is needed.  But what has fallen thus far is a gift if ever there was one.  Although we had flooding in my area overnight that continues this morning, I doubt there are many who would really complain about it.

(I’ll note, poppets, that I have the television on with local news playing in the background, and they are showing video from right down the street where the worst flooding has happened.  There’s always a bizarre sense of intrigued voyeurism that wells up when one’s neighborhood appears on the boob tube.)

Lest I give you the impression of imminent doom, again let me reiterate a simple point: this ice storm is not guaranteed to happen.  If a small change occurs in the storm’s track, the outcome for us could be quite different.  It could be a nonevent; it could be a disaster.  Only as and after the affair unfolds will we truly know the full impact.  Not until Monday morning will a final impression of the extent and effect be available.

I’ve stocked up and prepared for an indoor weekend, one replete with reading, writing, eating, drinking, and lots of kitty love.  Either I’ll enjoy a cold, rainy few days, or I’ll enjoy a treacherous winter deluge.  In either case, I’m ready.

So I shall keep you posted as things develop.  If in fact an ice event takes place (which, I think, is certain, but the question of severity is up in the air), I will try to venture out, brave the cold and slippery surfaces, and grab some photos for you.