It seems more and more likely that Texas will get its second tropical storm by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.  Although Hurricane Dean is too far out for a precise forecast of its second and final landfall (the first being the Yucatan Peninsula), models are increasingly providing a glimpse of this rather violent storm taking a wee bit of a turn to the north once it passes into the Gulf of Mexico.  Even no turn would bring it near to the Texas coast, so any turn in that direction would put us in the crosshairs.

Tropical Storm Erin appeared out of nowhere before making its way onshore in Texas.  That’s one tropical storm already.  Dean appears set to make it two for two.

Now here’s the deal: North Texas is overdue for a tropical storm hit.  In fact, the average strike schedule came and went several years ago.  Could this hurricane be the one?

That’s hard to say.  Hurricanes are inherently unpredictable because their paths can be so erratic.  With landfall still many days away, Dean could easily continue on a more westerly path and hit Mexico with only a glancing blow against Texas.  On the other hand, it might well veer northward and bring its full fury to our shores.  Only time will tell.

I’ll be watching this closely.  What the state can’t handle right now is more flooding, more heavy rains.  Erin proved that by bringing yet more death to the Lone Star State after months of floods had already killed so many (22 just since mid-June, not including those caused by Erin).

To make matters worse, the Gulf of Mexico is quite warm and will fuel Dean once it crosses over the Yucatan Peninsula.  It will probably weaken to a category three storm as it passes over that landmass.  Once it’s back in the Gulf, however, ample warm water could easily resurrect it to category four, if not five, and just in time to hit land once again.

But let me repeat myself: I’m not being alarmist since things can change a great deal between now and the middle of next week.  Nevertheless, Texas already has begun putting plans in motion to respond to a direct hit.  Supply trucks are being moved to evacuation routes, emergency plans are being put into place, and all manner of supplies and personnel are being mobilized.  Wishing not to be caught with our britches down like Louisiana was when Katrina hit, and certainly understanding our worst fear would be realized with the heavy rains of a tropical storm falling on a state that has suffered from floods since early in the year, there’s no room for being impractical or unprepared.

And now we watch… and wait.

[Update] I notice the GFDL model run now brings Dean near the Texas coast as a category five hurricane (possibly fluctuating downward before landfall).  I find this troubling insofar as GFDL has an extremely reliable history in modeling such storms and their tracks.  Keep in mind, however, even the slightest fluctuation in the storm’s movement early in the forecast can mean tremendous changes in the latter stages of the model.